Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Triangle Business Journal:

http://www.todd-bodine.com/2002/02nhisreport.html
The pace of private-sector job lossesa will slow over the next few but state and local government layoffs are the Business Forecasting Centetr at the said in its latest California and Metro Forecastreleaser Wednesday. The forecast said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percenty early next year, and will remaij in double-digits until the end of 2011. The center produces quarterly economic forecasts of the United California and nine metro from Sacramento to Fresno and the San Francisco Bay In theSacramento area, unemploymeng will rise from 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 perceng next year, before dipping to 10.2 percen in 2011, the report said.
Unemployment is expectedr to reach 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecastt to rebound in the third quarter of next when job growth will improveto 0.8 A “strong rebound is expected to take plac e in professional and business, and educational and healtuh services sectors,” the report said of Sacramento. “Jo b growth is expected to have its firsft positive full yearat 2.0 percen t in 2011.” Sacramento’s real personal meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percentf next year.
San Jose and San Franciscio will be the firstg metro areas in Norther California to return totheidr pre-recession employment levels, in the second and thirfd quarters of 2012, respectively, the study Sacramento and Merced will be amongb the last north state metro areasw to regain peak in fourth-quarter 2013. Vallejo is last, with a return expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Central Valley will be hard hit by the combinatiob of recent state tax increases and massive expected budget cuts, the Business Forecastingy Center said.
“The statde budget crisis is a dangerous aftershock to a regiohn still reeling from theforeclosurw earthquake,” Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecastinb Center, said in a news release. The Centra Valley is an economic disaster but most ofits “economic shocks are cyclicaol in nature rather than permanent changes such as closed militaryg bases,” the news release said. • Construction continuee to lead job losses inpercentage terms, declining anothert 15 percent to 110,000 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the declinrin 2009, losing 135,000 jobs this year. Retail sales will not return to theit 2007 leveluntil 2011.
• New car and truc k sales will fallbelow 1.06 million in 2009, after exceedingy 2 million for most of the decade. Salez will gradually increase as theeconomuy recovers, reaching 1.46 million next year, and 1.73 millionm in 2011. • Housing starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,0000 units, more than 80 percent below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housinh starts will be back to 100,000 unitas in 2011, and exceesd 150,000 by 2013. Health care is the only sector that will not shrink this The gainof 13,000 health care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowest growth this decade. Personal income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
Nonfarm payrolls will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewidee during the two-year recession. • The California economy will finally hit bottomn in the fourth quarter of this and will begina multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 befor e many key economic indicators such as unemployment return tohealthy levels. • The state’s recession should end in the last quarter ofthis year, but the job market will remain weak through most of next year.